Pending Recession. I know, not a single person wants to hear those two words but it is so important for you to get ahead of this potential threat. Have you listened to the intro of this show? Former billion-dollar mortgage banker gone bankrupt because I was not ready. I was not prepared during the last down turn. Do not make the same mistakes that I did and so I hope everyone of you get value from the episode and then immediately start taking MFA (Massive Fucking Action in case you missed that term from earlier episodes.) The market has changed rapidly so you do not have time to waste. Inflation has skyrocketed and interest rates keep rising so now is the time to look at everything. So start asking yourself some of the questions that I discuss in this episode, start being a little more cautious, start trimming the fat around your real estate business. I am just here hoping that you are ready and if you need any support hit me up on one of the links from below. Thank you all for listening and I will see you in the next episode. When you're ready, head on over to https://easysell411.com https://billyalvaro.com https://billyssecrets.com To get some neat (and FREE) Tools | Tips | Tricks to help you in REI!
Pending Recession.
I know, not a single person wants to hear those two words but it is so important for you to get ahead of this potential threat.
Have you listened to the intro of this show? Former billion-dollar mortgage banker gone bankrupt because I was not ready. I was not prepared during the last down turn.
Do not make the same mistakes that I did and so I hope everyone of you get value from the episode and then immediately start taking MFA (Massive Fucking Action in case you missed that term from earlier episodes.)
The market has changed rapidly so you do not have time to waste.
Inflation has skyrocketed and interest rates keep rising so now is the time to look at everything.
So start asking yourself some of the questions that I discuss in this episode, start being a little more cautious, start trimming the fat around your real estate business.
I am just here hoping that you are ready and if you need any support hit me up on one of the links from below.
Thank you all for listening and I will see you in the next episode.
When you're ready, head on over to
To get some neat (and FREE) Tools | Tips | Tricks to help you in REI!
Billy 00:03
Welcome to unstoppable real estate investing wealth. My name is Billy Alvaro, aka the unstoppable BA, former billion-dollar mortgage banker, gone bankrupt, turn professional real estate investor, where each week you'll learn the tools, strategies, systems, and secrets myself and other highly successful real estate investing entrepreneurs use to start, grow and scale their businesses creating massive profits and how you can too, and we'll teach you how to put those profits to work. So, you no longer must get ready to finally experience financial freedom and generational wealth. Now let's get started. What in the hell is going on everybody? My name is Billy Alvaro, the unstoppable BA and I'm here on unstoppable REI wealth solo cast today doing this for a reason. Last couple I wanted to do solo because I wanted to give you some value and educate on my own side instead of interviewing. But today's cast is going to be slightly different. Today we're going to be naming this this podcast how to not lose your mind your money or your ass with the pending recession. Now look, you guys must be living with your head in the sand are under a freaking rock. If you don't know what the hell is going on. If you're not aware of what's about to happen, right? The market changes it changes are happening radically. They're moving through Swift, and things are changing, like at a rapid pace. And if you're not prepared, and you're in the real estate investing world, whether you are a fixin flipper or a wholesaler, a buy and hold guy. If you're not prepared, and you don't change things, you're going to be finding that you're going to be holding your ass in your hand. And it's not going to be a good experience. And I'm gonna explain to you why, with everything that's going on. Now, right after the pandemic happened, we saw a surge in values everywhere around the United States, like I was of the mindset when the pandemic hit, it was gonna go south. But in fact, look, I haven't magic friggin ball or magic wand, I have no clue what the hell the future is gonna hold, right? It's just, it's just a guesstimate. The market went completely through the roof, a lot of wealth was made over the last two and a half years, right. Tons of value. Real estate markets across the country have seen 1015 2030 35% increases. In some cases, the values have gone through the roof because there were just no no houses on the market. And so that caused you know, a decrease in the with house on the market of inventory. People over bidding, you can put a house in the market and sell in one weekend had 50 people show up and have 40 offers and get $70,000 over asking. I mean, it happens all the time. It was happening all the time in northeast; it was happening on the West Coast. I know it was happening nationally, different market segments had different things happening. So, then what happened, pandemic money went out, government just filled everybody's pockets with cash, people stopped working people started working at home values are still gonna go through the roof, government changes presidency. And I'm not blaming this on him at all. He is a little bit of a schmuck in my opinion, but he is not 100% fully to blame, probably 99%. But the market is taking a swift change. So, inflation highest has been what 40 plus years, 50 years, 48 years, whatever the hell the number is. So, inflation is going through the friggin roof. Haven't seen it like this. I can remember back in 19 I think it was 77 when they were rationing out gas and gas prices back then went up like three or $4 a gallon and you couldn't get gas they had no gas, you had to go on like odd even days I was I was young enough to remember going to my mom, my mom and dad's car and filling up with gas. I remember interest rates back then being 14 1516 18% for interest rates. Now, I don't think rates are gonna go that high at all. I mean, who knows if they will or not, I mean, I've been wrong in the past. But rates right now with the way inflation is the Fed is trying to come in and he's trying to calm inflation down. I think it's over 8% on the inflation side. And he's doing that with a rapid increase in interest rates. And we all know, when you start bumping up rates, the way he's been pumping it up, that's going to have an impact on the housing market. It's going to knock a lot of people out of the market. It's going to slow down what the whole bull run that we've had over the last 13 foot over the last 13 years, and over the last two years. And so, there's a lot of different opinions about what's going to happen. And it's on both ends of the spectrum. I'm listening to people very smart people who was saying that this is could eat could be as equally as bad as 2008. They have their reasons. And I'm listening to people who said this is just going to be a temporary thing it'll be we're going to be right back into into another Bull Run. I don't think it's going to be either or I think it's going to be somewhere in between, but What I do know is that if you're not prepared, if you don't change some things, immediately, you're going to find yourself losing your mind losing your money and losing your ass and nobody wants to lose her as you don't want to be a backward crack. You want to have a nice Alaska, all that. But you also don't want to lose your money or your mind. Because all three of those no good, right? I mean, I went through that last crash back in in 2008. And I lost my mind. And I lost all my money and lost mass, I was a little flat, so that for a little bit, and it was not fun. And it took me a couple of years to get at it. So, what did I learn, then, that I can deploy? Now? What are the similarities? How am I going to and guys that are in the industry with us? How are we going to not only survive with thrive, but it also comes down to how you think it comes down to how you execute, and it comes down to how you underwrite. We all know the same in real estate. Its location, location, location, right? But it's not just location, it's you make your money and not just based on location, you make your money on when you buy a property. And so, if you buy right, you have no issues, you can never have an issue with the property shouldn't say never, you're going to minimize the number of issues you're going to have. If you buy right if you buy right, you can never ever, ever, ever go wrong. If you start swinging your thing out there and thinking that the market is not going to crash. And you start overpaying for properties like people have been doing over the last two years, I got guys that I know guys that I'm friends with that the markets they've been in, have been so good to them, that they can buy a property go on the contract at like 90 cents on the dollar and turn around and sell this thing can still make a quick $25,000 without doing anything that or property because the hedge funds are buying them. And dumb ass investors were paying premiums because there was no inventory out there. The same guys that I'm friends with today. And they're smart, these are not dumb guys, because they have such an overwhelming amount of inventory that they're in contract the purchase, oh that they own. And taking hits, taking hits of 100 200 $300,000 in a month, it's a major hit. You have a couple of months like that. You could wipe out whatever reserves you have God. So, what do you do? I don't want to be doom and gloom, I don't want to say the sky is falling. Look, it's all about being prepared, anything that you're going to do in life comes down to how you prepare yourself how you execute, and how you think, through the process, you got to think what worked two months ago, the strategies that worked three months ago, are not necessarily going to work in two months from now. And I can tell you that if you don't change the way you're buying, and if you don't buy right, and you don't get a little bit more conservative on your underwriting. And you don't take in consideration the cash flow you're going to need for your business, and you don't look at your expenses, you can very well wind up like I did back in 2008 where I literally held my medic command. I mean, I was I was done I was I was busted everything, just the whole bottom fell out and lost it all. And so specifically in this industry on the fix and flip, buy and hold real estate investing side, you just must underwrite differently, I'm gonna tell you what we're doing, we're taking today, my whole team and they don't like it, we have to do it, we're probably my prediction, for us. And for other companies who are doing things a little bit different. My prediction is that the next six to eight months, we're going to be a little bit slower in our buying, we're going to lose deals and we're simply going to lose deals because there's going to be a lot of dumb investors who are going to outbid us who are willing to pay more for the properties because they don't think the markets gonna go sideways. They don't think the markets gonna correct and they're going to be left holding the bag, we're going to lose business short term, we're going to gain long term, right, so we must forego deals today. We can't play this bidding game, we can't go up and go over all mayo, just because we want to try to take down the deal six months ago that that worth, you can go past your mail, and pay more for the property and cash you still make 30 40,000 miles on the house because the market was just gonna lay this there was no inventory and the markets going all the way up. So on the image on the on the underwriting side, if you're fixing and flipping, if you're wholesaling. You want to build in a discount off whatever the value is of trading out today. And you want a discount of what you think it's going to trade for six to 12 months from now. Certain parts of the country are ready we just got back from an event and there was saying in the Midwest and Arizona. In California, they're already seeing fit in certain areas, not a 15% decrease over what the province was selling for that's substantial. That's profits, all your profits, some cases so for us, we're taking a discount of today's values, while they're writing it as markets gonna take a tank and, you know, eight to 10 to 15%, a year from now, and we're underwriting those numbers today. And that means we're going to be probably taking in less properties. But I'm totally fine with that. Why? Because I've already lived through one major downfall, I lived through the one in 2001, when the the bubble happened, the internet bubble, and that was I was in the mortgage industry, they went down, and then it came back up. So you just have to prepare yourself, you have to watch your expenses, right, you have to watch everything, and start really getting involved more deeply with your business, you have to look at your employees on your team. And you have to say, who's adding value, and who's not, it's very easy. When times are good, when times are fat when things are rolling, to kind of overlook, don't overlook who's a weak link, overlook who's not pulling their weight overlook, who's only giving you a 60% output, versus 100 or 120 125% output, you need to bring in a player's The one thing I would tell you guys not to do. Don't come back in your marketing, continue to market, you may market differently, you may market for different asset classes, you may market for different types of sellers, who knows where the markets gonna go, I think what's gonna happen is that down the road a little bit as this the rates continue to rise, and more inventory starts to come in the market gets less competitive, excuse me, I think it's going to be harder for sellers to sell. I think there'll be an opportunity to, to buy properties with seller financing. I mean, there's always opportunities for that. But I think it's going to be a bigger opportunity; I think it's going to be harder to wholesale properties. Right. And the reason being is once the market does correct, and there's more opportunities on the market to purchase, it's easier for people to go on to the MLS or go to the auctions or to market to a qualified property sellers who want to sell because sellers are going to want to be anxious to sell it's going to be a buyer’s market. complete opposite of what has been it's been seller's market. So, there's going to be more sellers out there. And because there's more sellers, it's going to be market deals going to be readily available. And because they're readily available, the wholesale side is going to be a little bit more difficult to turn, you're not going to get those huge chunks that you were getting on the wholesale side. So, if you're not renovating, you may want to consider bringing that into your war chest as a tool to get into the renovation side, I would recommend excuse me, we're not recommend going and doing renovations today, because if you've never done them, with the market conditions going down, I wouldn't recommend going in when it's starting to take because it's just too volatile. I would wait till the market softens or flatten a little bit and then I might hop into it. I would start getting into seller financing, creative financing, you know buy properties subject to take them down and see if the sellers are willing to give you that mortgage that they got the three 4% and do a seller finance do a wrap. Do we just did a 0% sulfites I've never done one of those my entire life. I've done seller financing, I've done subject twos, I've never done a zero-interest rate 100% principle pay down on a deal ever. We just did once freaking super creative and the team pulled through and you know we all kind of got together we figured out how to make it happen. And the guy who brought it in executed sold it to the seller and we ended up getting this deal where you know we're getting an asset that's worth about a half million dollars or a little bit more for 300 grand. With zero interest, the house is going to be paid it's it's payments. So, how's it gonna be paid for free and clear, 10 years $0 Down $202,000 a month, sick sick deal. So, if you want to not only thrive but survive, you got to look at your underwriting guidelines. It's how you buy the properties. Make sure you are going in and being conservative when you're on the right. Make sure that you're not you look at all your expenses, and just prepare yourself the days of being a cowboy and gunslinging and putting it out there. They're not gone forever. They're gone for now. And the massive amounts of wealth are going to happen in the downturn. Those who have cash readily available, and those who have the strategy and the wherewithal to get through these. The times that are about to be upon us are the ones who are going to win in the end. And so, if you're a smaller player or if you're a medium sized player, and you are like you don't know which way this is going to go and you're like I don't have enough cash to survive. Maybe you consider pod rocket partnering up with somebody who has a larger company where you can leverage their back office, you can leverage them for deals conversion, you can leverage their rehab department, you do some sort of a joint venture where you take all the, the strain and struggle of operating a business where you just come in, and you could just do acquisitions for a company, you don't have to be their employee, you can do joint ventures all the way through, just to get you through the next couple of months in the next couple of years, when to where you secure yourself, you pocket the money, you put the money in the bank, and then you can go outside buy in some serious rentals. Look, I don't have a magic bowl, or a crystal ball that let you guys know what the hell's gonna happen. I have been wrong 100 times before, but with rates rise in the way they are, with inflation going through the roof, with gas prices at record highs. And with everything that's happening over in Russia and Ukraine, and I think what's about to happen in the Middle East, we're in for a bit of a shitshow. And if you're not prepared, you're gonna get caught. And you don't want to get caught. You don't want to lose your s and want to be a backward crack. You don't want to be one of them. Not a good look skinny, little back with a crack. So, look, what a serious note on the right tighter, make sure you go out there and you are doing deals in a more conservative manner, can't be afraid, can't pull back and do nothing. I know a lot of guys right now that are shitting their pants, they're going completely the opposite way. And they're like they don't want to do anything. They're like afraid to make a move, like that's the wrong move. Gotta be smart, you got to be diligent, you got to be agile, you have to execute, you got to know your numbers, you have to cut the fat, you have to ensure that you have quality people on your team, there's going to be a an overwhelming amount of quality people that are getting laid off mortgage industries right now, two major banks went out of business, you're gonna see a lot more banks, starting to close up the non-qualified mortgages. A lot of these banks were were doing these deals like crazy, and they're stuck now on their lines where they can't move them. And they're going to start implementing, we've already had one in Long Island and one national player that they're out. And I think there's going to be more following suit. And when that happens, again, all these little collapses happen. It's just it's the domino effect. And it's just everything starts to unwind, and things start to get crazy. But there's so much opportunity when that happens, the amount of quality people that are going to be in the market for a job is going to be through the roof, you can get some quality people at a fair number for them and a fair number for you. You can possibly handle the workload of one and a half or two people that you currently have in your staff. So, you got to think through this. Yeah, it's gonna be a problem, there's going to be some issues, there's going to be a market correction, but there's also going to be major opportunity for you to capitalize on it for your company to capitalize on it for the team that you currently must Excel. So that's it. That's my little spiel, that's my stick. That's my thing. This is Billy Aveiro unstoppable be a where's the market going? I have no freaking clue. But all I know is I'm not going to lose my mind this time. I can lose my money this time. And I'm not going to lose my assets. I'll see you guys next. Thank you so much for listening to today's episode of unstoppable real estate investing wealth. My mission is to give you my listeners the blueprint for success the insider secrets for starting, growing, and scaling your real estate investing business, acumen, experience and live the unstoppable lifestyle. I've made it simple for you to catapult yourself to success. Go to billyssecrets.com at billyssecrets.com. There you will find every single tool, tip trick strategy system and secret used to make millions of dollars as a real estate plus everything my team uses and my guest use all in one place for you to tap into. You can start grow and scale
Outro 18:59
your real estate investment business.
Billy 19:00
I really hope you implement what you're learning. I hope you utilize
Outro 19:04
these tools, tips, tricks, strategies and secrets. And I hope to see you on the next episode. God bless bye bye